Actionable Intelligence Alert with John Polomny

LOL! Japan's rate raising cycle lasts one week as markets rebel. AIA Weekly Report 8.10.24

Japan's central bank has informed the markets that it will not hike interest rates when the financial and capital markets are unstable. Japan needs to hike rates as the currency is weakening against the dollar.
However, if the carry trade is so big (estimated at $20 trillion) that a .25% rise in Japanese rates causes this much volatility, we potentially have major problems.
If you like the information I provide, consider supporting me by buying me a cup of coffee. I am listener and reader supported. https://www.buymeacoffee.com/johnpolomny

Yen carry trade blows up, markets tank. John gets happy. AIA Weekly Report 8.3.24

The Japanese central bank raised interest rates for the second time this year. Markets tank as yen carry trade begins to unwind. The total value of the Yen carry trade could be as high as $20 trillion. I explain in basic terms what the carry trade is and the repercussions of it unwinding.

Debt, default, and devaluation are the West's future. AIA Weekly Market Update 7.27.24

The overvaluation in US markets continues, yet there are excellent undervalued situations all over the world. I discuss some of these opportunities in this podcast.
 

Why gold stocks have super leverage to the gold price. AIA Weekly Report 7.20.24

Although gold stocks have lagged the recent move in the gold bullion price, primarily because the tech sector bubble is attracting all the attention, they are poised to play catchup. I explain why a $400 move in the gold price can translate into hundreds of millions of dollars of cash flow for a gold mining company.

FED poised to cut interest rates. Gold and gold mining shares will move higher. AIA Weekly 7.13.24

With recent US employment data weakening and inflation continuing to moderate, the FED is poised to begin a rate-cutting cycle. During previous rate-cutting cycles, gold and gold mining stocks have moved materially higher. Gold is above $2400/oz and silver is above $30/oz. Smart money is positioning in these assets in anticipation of rate cuts.

Employment continues to stumble. Time for Mr. Powell's money machine? AIA Weekly 7.6.24

Employment numbers continue to weaken as economic numbers soften. Is it time for the Fed to start its rate-cutting cycle? The FED is likely already behind the curve.

I continue pounding the table on how cheap the resource markets are currently. AIA Weekly 6.29.24

Resource markets are still massively undervalued compared to the general stock market and tech stocks in particular. The one caveat is that a general stock market downturn could be negative for even resource stocks. Let's be honest: 95% of stocks will go down in a stock market downturn. And resource stocks are still stocks. However, in the subsequent recovery, they will be first to recover and will likely outperform.

Diverging economic indicators not pushing FED to cut rates. AIA Weekly 6.22.24

US Flash PMI came in positive this week. However, we also see the Citi economic surprise index weakening. This divergent economic news is likely going to cause the FED to pause and not cut rates. How can they cut rates with the market at near all-time highs, housing prices at all-time highs, and PMI's increasing?

Uranium is volatile. Use that volatility for your benefit. AIA Weekly Report 6.15.24

In the last four years, we have seen eight double-digit declines in uranium (using URNM as a proxy). Yet overall the ETF has advanced multiples. How to use the inherent volatility of the resource markets to your advantage.

The Bank of Canada and ECB fire their monetary bazookas. Moneyfest 2024 continues. AIA Weekly 6.8.24

The Central Bank of Canada and the ECB both cut rates this week. This continues the trend of central banks around the world cutting rates and increasing liquidity. This will be a multi-year trend and should be long-term bullish for hard assets.