Actionable Intelligence Alert with John Polomny

More and more information is emerging that many unknown knock-on effects are arising from the continued Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the stock market (especially tech stocks) keeps hitting new highs while energy is underperforming. We will see if this continues.

Agricultural prices are beginning to break out as the market prices in the effects of higher diesel and fertilizer prices and/or the lack of fertilizer application across various crops.
This is one of the biggest economic own goals in history. Yet most market participants are ignoring the consequences or are unaware of them.

I take a look at the long-term charts of lithium and nickel. Both appear to be breaking out of base building sideways formations. The probability of higher prices is significant.

The Trump administration has a midterm election coming up, and the worst thing that can happen is higher oil and gasoline prices. Consumers don't like high prices, duh! It appears we can't get Iran to what we want, so Trump lies about progress with negotiations, and the market sells off the oil price.
Then on the weekend, when markets are closed, they go back to bombing or threatening to bomb Iran.
At some point, reality will assert itself.

Because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, many essential goods are not leaving the Persian Gulf. This is creating many opportunities in second and third-tier ideas. I talk about a few this week.

The war on Iran continues, and more and more commodities become scarce. Prices continue to rise, and the timeline until catastrophe gets closer. The US continues to escalate.
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The war continues as commodity prices keep rising, further squeezing the world economy and economically weak countries. Now the Houthis are re-entering the conflict, potentially causing shipping disruptions in the Red Sea.

We are now entering the fourth week of the US/Israel war. I continue that the longer this goes on, the higher prices for energy, food, and other resources will continue to move higher. At some point, this will matter politically.

The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting a wide range of essential commodities: oil, LNG, nat gas liquids, sulfur, urea, chemicals, and plastics. This is causing shortages and rising prices, which will eventually be transmitted to consumers as higher prices and lead to a likely global recession.