Actionable Intelligence Alert with John Polomny

Can the Trump administration pull a trade and monetary rabbit out of a hat? AIA Weekly 5.23.25

The Trump administration is trying to remedy what it sees as unsustainable trade and monetary imbalances, which it views as undermining the US economy.
The question is, can they do it before the economic pain undermines their political support and mandate?

What is currently overvalued and undervalued? AIA Weekly Report 4.26.25

Gold is overvalued currently in the short term. Gold is on the cover of Barron's this week. Conversely, oil is still undervalued in my opinion. Emerging markets are also undervalued relative to the US equity markets.

Oil looks like a great deal at these levels. AIA Weekly Report 4.19.25

Oil sentiment is thoroughly washed out, and everyone is expecting economic weakness. I see declining US production and barring an economic dislocation like 2000, 2008, or 2020, oil is likely to surprise to the upside.

Large cap gold stocks break out as gold makes new high. AIA Weekly Report 4.12.25

The gold stock ETF (GDX) has reached recent highs as the gold price makes a new all-time high. The junior gold stock ETF (GDXJ) is flirting with a breakout. A gold stock bull market now appears to be in progress.

Day of Liberation causes financial dislocation and market chaos. AIA weekly report 4.5.25

The administration initiated its tariff policy, which is part of a broader economic policy. Investors are grieving, fearing, and full of angst. Markets are reacting by selling off. Unfortunately, the baby is being thrown out with the bath water.
We have seen this before. Yes, there is volatility but in this chaos and volatility there is the seed of opportunity.

Gold and copper make new highs. Is sentiment too bullish? AIA Weekly 3.29.25

Gold and copper made new highs this week. However, it seems sentiment is way too bullish for both. Gold has become the latest shiny object on social media, and too many new investors (speculators) are touting it.
Expect a correction in an ongoing bullmarket.

Rotation out of MAG 10 into value and emerging markets continues. AIA Weekly Update 3.22.25

The rotation out of what has been working into undervalued sectors continues as MAG 7-10 stocks weaken, and undervalued sectors (commodities, value, foreign stocks, emerging markets) are beneficiaries of that rotation.

Rotation away from AI/Tech to value stocks continues. AIA Weekly 3.15.25

The rotation from overvalued and overhyped tech and AI stocks into value stocks continues. I discuss sectors where if just a bit of liquidity enters we could see some big moves higher.

Trump admin running the Reagan/Volcker economic gambit. AIA Weekly Report 3.8.25

During Reagan's term, the FED chairman raised rates to 20% and crushed inflation. This also caused a severe recession. However, this also set the economy up for a huge recovery as inflation fell, rates were cut, and the economy was stimulated.
The Reagan administration also massively deregulated the economy and passed tax cuts through Congress. This caused a boom which propelled Reagan to another four-year term and allowed his VP to have a four-year term. It seems the Trump administration is doing something similar. Not raising rates but cutting fiscal stimulus to the economy.
This will cause a recession, likely leading to lower inflation, rates, and energy prices. Couple this with a promise to deregulate the economy and tax cuts, and we could be looking at taking the pain early and enjoying the gain later.

Chaos equals cash as economic, political, and market volatility continue. AIA Weekly Report 3.1.25

There has been much volatility as chaos reigns supreme in markets, politics, and economics. This has created opportunities for speculators and investors.