Actionable Intelligence Alert with John Polomny

Trump tells Iran to open all channels of Strait or else. Oil prices fall. AIA Report 7.11.26

I guess the ceasefire is over and the MOU is out the window. Iran fired on some more ships and US installations. The US bombed some rocks. In the meantime, the disruption to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continues, and global diesel supply is under pressure. Maybe we are not going back to $50 a barrel as soon as many thought.

Tightening liquidity leading to lower resource prices and risk off environment. AIA Weekly 6.27.26

Global central bank rates are rising, leading to tighter liquidity. This is leading to lower prices for risk assets. However, I am convinced that in the end, all roads eventually lead to money printing by the central bank.

Is the MOU void on the second day as Israel attacks Southern Lebanon? AIA Weekly Update 6.20.26

The MOU is in danger after the second day due to Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Does anyone actually think Trump can negotiate a lasting deal in 60 days? I don't see oil going into the $ 50s in this unstable environment.

Jeff Curie: The abundance illusion. SPR oil releases work until they run out. AIA Weekly 6.13.26

Good article by Jeff Currie at the Carlyle Group on how the US government can never admit to scarcity. He calls it the illusion of abundance.
The abundance illusion https://www.carlyle.com/carlyle-compa...

Classic signs of a stock market top are coming into focus. AIA Weekly 6.6.26

Micron CEO selling shares, Google and Meta issuing shares, SpaceX IPO hype seem to me all classic signs of top behavior. Couple that with over 50% of the market being concentrated in AI and tech, and you have a warning of a stock market top, in my view.

Resource's are "The most asymmetric trade in modern financial history". AIA Weekly Report 5.23.26

Jeff Currie, the world-famous commodity expert, has said that resources and commodities are the asset class with the most upside. Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history. https://x.com/CommodMkt/status/205514...

Exxon and Chevron executives warn of higher oil and product prices. AIA Weekly Update 5.30.26

Recent comments from leading oil companies like Exxon and Chevron warn that imminent inventory lows could lead to higher oil prices in the next couple of months.

Uzbekistan National Investment Fund is live! Scott Osheroff interview and discussion

I interviewed Scott Osheroff, the CIO of the AFC Uzbekistan Fund, on the current economic climate in Uzbekistan. We also discussed the start of trading for the Uzbekistan National Investment Fund on the London Stock Exchange this week.
State Fund IPO Opens Door to Buy Into Uzbekistan's Growth Story https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/state-fund-ipo-opens-door-to-buy-into-uzbekistans-growth-story
The National Investment Fund of the Republic of Uzbekistan https://www.uznif.com/en-uz
AFC Uzbekistan Fund
https://www.asiafrontiercapital.com/afc-funds/afc-uzbekistan-fund.html Scott Osheroff's Telegram Channel https://t.me/+iVi21gYOX-Y0NWQ1

Knock on effects of closure of Strait continue to accumulate. AIA Weekly Update 5.16.26

More and more information is emerging that many unknown knock-on effects are arising from the continued Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Tech stocks are crushing energy stocks. Why it can't continue? AIA Weekly Report 5.9.26

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the stock market (especially tech stocks) keeps hitting new highs while energy is underperforming. We will see if this continues.