Actionable Intelligence Alert with John Polomny

Because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, many essential goods are not leaving the Persian Gulf. This is creating many opportunities in second and third-tier ideas. I talk about a few this week.

The war on Iran continues, and more and more commodities become scarce. Prices continue to rise, and the timeline until catastrophe gets closer. The US continues to escalate.
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The war continues as commodity prices keep rising, further squeezing the world economy and economically weak countries. Now the Houthis are re-entering the conflict, potentially causing shipping disruptions in the Red Sea.

We are now entering the fourth week of the US/Israel war. I continue that the longer this goes on, the higher prices for energy, food, and other resources will continue to move higher. At some point, this will matter politically.

The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting a wide range of essential commodities: oil, LNG, nat gas liquids, sulfur, urea, chemicals, and plastics. This is causing shortages and rising prices, which will eventually be transmitted to consumers as higher prices and lead to a likely global recession.

The Trump administration has told Iran they must unconditionally surrender. However, other administration officials have qualified this statement. Regardless, the march higher in oil prices will likely dictate the outcome of this war.

The US and Israel have moved forward with an attack on Iran described as a "regime change" operation. I have said all along that what happens in the markets is likely going to be determined by how the Iranian regime responds.

The US has the largest military buildup in the Middle East in years. It appears the US is going to attack Iran. What are some of the implications of this attack if it works or doesn't work?

Big merger in offshore drilling as Transocean offers an all-stock deal for Valaris. This would be the number one driller merging with the third largest driller. Transocean estimates annual savings of $200 million.

Positive developments are occurring in the offshore drilling and oilfield services sector. It seems 2026 will be a great year for oilfield services. If you find the information I provide helpful, consider supporting me by buying me a cup of coffee. I am a listener and reader-supported venture.