Actionable Intelligence Alert with John Polomny

Oil sentiment at record lows. Is oil the 2025 contrarian play? AIA Weekly Video 12.14.24

Oil sentiment is record bearish. This is despite Permian producers cutting capex, sanctions resuming on Iran, and OPEC holding office on returning production to the market. Are we set up for a return to higher oil prices?

Are we at peak shale production growth? Implications for oil prices. AIA Weekly Update 12.7.24

The Q3 Goehring and Rozencswajg commentary has been published. The report argues that the US has reached peak oil and gas shale production. If this is correct, it could cause a big upset in the energy markets, as the markets have the exact opposite expectation.

What if the rest of LatAm goes the way of Argentina. An emerging boom? AIA Weekly 11.30.24

I think we may be experiencing a sea change in politics in Latin America. With Milei's election in Argentina, we see massive, unprecedented economic reforms and a complete rejection of statism. Several other countries in Latin America are going to have elections in 2025 and 2026.
Might the people of these countries be responsive to reforms similar to those in Argentina? If so, we may see a boom in South America.

The US market is still historically overvalued. AIA Weekly 11.23.24

More indicators show the overvaluation in the US markets versus the rest of the world.
I also discuss the further implications of Russia's ban on uranium exports to the US.

Russia "temporarily" banned export of enriched uranium to US. AIA Weekly Report 11.16.24

Russia on Friday temporarily banned the export of enriched uranium to the US, causing the spot price of uranium to jump. However, as I covered in this week's presentation, this is not the only positive news for uranium investors.

US FED cuts rates as Trump wins significant electoral victory. AIA Market Report 11.9.24

The Federal Reserve cut rates by .25% last week, but this was overshadowed by Trump's overwhelming electoral victory. There are also opportunities in Aluminum and Tin investing.

Why I changed my mind on investing in China. AIA Weekly 11.2.24

When the facts change, my opinion changes. This is what has happened with my view on investing in China. I always thought it was undervalued. I still have some concerns, but I believe an opportunity exists here.

BRICS meeting not the dollar killer many were anticipating. AIA Weekly Report 10.26.24

This week, the big BRICS meeting was held in Kazan, Russia. Although important from a perception and visual perspective, it did not result in any major news or move towards a new currency. I review what occurred.

US tech giants go all in on nuclear. Gold and silver make new highs. AIA Weekly Report 10.19.24

Major announcements from US tech giants on plans to invest in nuclear energy to power data centers.
Gold and silver make new highs. I explain why this rally is likely to continue.

Final 2024 US government deficit is $1.8T dollars or 6.4% of GDP. AIA Weekly Report 10.12.24

The CBO report shows that the U.S. deficit surged to $1.8 trillion in the Fiscal Year 2024, representing 6.4% of GDP—the most significant shortfall since 2021.
That’s $139 billion more than the deficit of FY 2023 and nearly $400 billion more than FY 2022. Government spending jumped 10% year over year to reach $6.8 trillion. The biggest expenditures included Social Security ($1.5 trillion), interest payments on debt ($950 billion), and Medicare ($869 billion).
Federal debt also swelled by $2.2 trillion over the past year, hitting an all-time high of $35.7 trillion this week. The trend underscores the persistent crisis of U.S. deficit spending.