Employment is beginning to crack. Recession in the US is back in focus. AIA Weekly Report 11-4-23

The employment number this week was weaker than expected. That data, along with other data points, is beginning to show more and more weakness in US employment. The strength in employment has been the main statistic holding the US economy up.

If employment cracks, then expect the consumer to pull back even more than they are, leading to further weakness in the US economy.