Actionable Intelligence Alert with John Polomny

Copper supply issues continue to make the news. AIA Weekly 5/11/24.

This week's video is a short one, guys, as I was traveling and had a bit of the sniffles.
Copper supply is becoming more challenged as demand continues to ramp.
Elon Musk's illegal immigration tweet gets 42.5 million views.

FED holds steady on cutting rates. Does stealth loosening of credit conditions. AIA Weekly 5.4.24

The FED kept rates steady during last week's FED meeting. However, they did lower the amount of the QT, which is loosening the financial conditions.
They did this to help the Treasury, which is having a hard time selling the deluge of new Treasury debt being issued because of the US government's out-of-control spending.

Are we in WWIII? Investing and specualting opportunities. AIA 4.27.24

I believe we are already in a cold WWIII based on the continuing collapse of the post-WWII rules-based order dominated by Pax Americana.
As a new multi-polar world emerges, dominated by the global east and south, we will likely see economic, political, and social upheaval. This will create investing and speculating opportunities for those who understand the changing landscape.
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Rio Tinto chairman says that a lack of new investment is worrisome. AIA Weekly 4.20.24

"The gap is humungous, and I am actually very worried about whether we will be able to close (it),” Barton said via video link at the Ecosperity conference in Singapore.
This lack of investment will lead to a shortage of new supply, which will cause higher prices and higher returns for mining companies with mines that can produce.

Copper is going much higher as underinvestment collides with demand growth. AIA Weekly 4.13.24

Like many other resources, copper has been underinvested in for years. As the push to electrify the economy in the West combines with emerging demand for electricity consumption in the global South and East, we can expect higher prices to facilitate the closing of the emerging copper supply/demand deficit.

Global PMIs indicate the global economy is growing. Commodity prices move higher. AIA Weekly 4.6.24

Global PMIs for March 2024 were released last week. The readings continued to show an increasing strength in the global economy. This strength is leading to more demand for energy and metal inputs, and we are seeing prices for these move higher in response.

Majority of central banks now cutting rates. Liquidty bazooka is firing. AIA Weekly Report 3.30.24

I show my data on the central bank data I have been collecting. The majority of the world's central banks are lowering rates. Expect the big dogs, the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England, to begin rate cuts this year.
This wave of liquidity is already causing hard assets to get a bid. This likely has a lot more room to run.

Washington Post Says US Facing Electricty Shortages. AIA Weekly Report 3.23.24

A recent article in the Washington Post reports that the US is facing an electricity shortage because of years of underinvestment in the transmission grid and underestimating electricity demand due to the growth in data centers and AI.
This will lead to more plants being built and more transmission and distribution infrastructure needing to be built. This is bullish for AIA subscribers.

Is AI A Stealth Uranium Play? AIA Weekly Report 3.16.24

Amazon just closed on a $650 million dollar data center adjacent to a nuclear power plant in PA. The Wall Street Journal has said data centers currently consume 1% of all electricity demand. They also say that they expect this to grow by 50% over the next several years.
The newer AI chips consume quite a bit more electricity than the current generation of chips. It looks like this demand growth will be filled with some level of nuclear power.

What if both US Shale and Saudi production are plateauing? AIA Weekly Market Update 3.2.24.

Interesting analysis in the most recent Goehring and Rozenswajg commentary concerning the possibility of US shale growth peaking while Saudi production growth may have also peaked. I recommend reading the recent G&R commentary for more in-depth coverage.